最近加幣幾乎是以急跌的方式, 嚇壞很多人. 從2007年十一月的1:1.10一元加幣可以換1.10元美金, 到這幾週急跌成1:0.78,一元加幣現在只能換0.78美元. 換算成台幣, 就是大約從35元台幣, 跌成約26元台幣就可以換一加幣. 對於最近要把新台幣匯成加幣過來的人來說, 是四年以來的新低; 但是對於要把加幣換成美金或匯回台幣的人呢, 可能就笑不出來了.......
對於新移民來說, 通常觀察匯率, "以為"已經穩定匯價幾個月之後, 就會把新台幣匯過來用, 誰知道現在看起來, 那時候的幾個月, 就是換在歷史的高點上了. 現在, 眼看著低點匯價, 實在扼腕...甚至在這不確定的時候, 也沒有人敢說, 匯價會不會繼續跌.......因為, 幾年前匯率的低價是2002年一月的1:0.618(約台幣20元換一元加幣).....
所以哩, 財富與購買能力, 究竟是命呢? 運氣呢? 理財能力呢? 還是能沉得住氣的功力呢?...........無解ㄚ....
茲轉載引述Vancouver Sun的兩篇文章......參考囉
Our weak dollar may sow seeds of its recovery
Harvey Enchin, Vancouver SunPublished: Tuesday, October 28, 2008
It seems like only yesterday -- it was, in fact, 2007 -- when our dollar soared so high so quickly that Time Magazine named it Canadian Newsmaker of the Year.
It deserves that distinction again this year for the exactly the opposite reason. From an intraday peak last November of $1.10 US, the Canadian dollar had plummeted to less than 78 cents by Monday, hitting a few milestones along the way. For instance, it has posted its steepest monthly drop on record, with a decline of more than 17 per cent, and has reached a four-year low. The buck bottomed out at 61.8 cents in January 2002 so there's still plenty of room for further erosion.
While the sinking dollar may injure our pride, it may help mitigate some of the negative impacts of the economic downturn. Conventional economic theory holds that a floating currency acts as a sort of shock absorber that insulates an economy to some extent from international instability. For example, the price of a currency will reflect the level required to bring supply and demand into equilibrium. This makes life easier for governments because the balance of payments then automatically adjusts without any intervention. Monetary policy is enhanced because the currency will reinforce the central bank's interest rate adjustments. When interest rates are lowered, the price of the currency will typically fall, augmenting exports and curbing imports.
Of course, the Canadian dollar is not in free fall entirely by design. The real story is the strength of the U.S. dollar, which seems inexplicable at first blush given the country's $11 trillion debt, ballooning deficit, failing financial institutions and collapsing real estate market. Apparently, investors believe the U.S. will be able to cope with the crisis better than other countries and emerge from recession faster.
Moreover, it would seem neither the euro nor the yen will displace the U.S. dollar as the foreign reserve currency of choice any time soon. The greenback remains the preferred destination in the flight to safety. International traders are buying U.S. treasuries and acquiring U.S. dollars to do so, while covering short positions created by losses on U.S. dollar-denominated assets.
There are other factors dragging down the Canadian dollar. There's a widely-held perception that our dollar is a petro-currency and its decline mirrors the drop in crude oil prices from the summer peak of $147 a barrel to Monday's close of $63.22. Similarly, the global economic downturn has cut demand for the commodities Canada produces, further putting pressure on the dollar.
A cheap dollar should make Canadian exports more attractive, especially in a recession when customers are looking for ways to contain costs -- assuming they'll buy anything at all. However, it will undoubtedly sap our enthusiasm for cross-border shopping, raise the price of imported goods, including fresh food, and squeeze the profit margins of sports franchises, which incur most of their costs in U.S. dollars. As if the Canucks didn't have enough to worry about.
The weakening of the Canadian dollar may sow the seeds of its own recovery. Its fall has been so sharp and sudden that there's an argument the market has overreacted, as it often does. With Canada's enviable fiscal strength, its exports selling at a deep discount, and commodities at or near the bottom of their cycle, traders may see the Canadian dollar as undervalued.
Such a change of heart could take some time.
henchin@vancouversun.com
Loonie up as improved sentiment helps reverse slide
Frank Pingue, ReutersPublished: Tuesday, October 28, 2008
TORONTO (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar was higher versus the U.S. dollar on Tuesday in choppy trade that saw the currency move back from its lowest level in more than four years as a bout of short-covering kicked in.
Bond prices, with no Canadian data to consider, were down across the curve alongside the bigger U.S. Treasury market as a slew of bargain-hunting gave a jolt to global stock markets and left little interest in government debt.
At 9:40 a.m. EDT, the Canadian unit was at C$1.2864 to the U.S. dollar, or 77.74 U.S. cents, up from C$1.2889 to the U.S. dollar, or 77.58 U.S. cents, at Monday's close. That erased a steep overnight fall in the currency, which dropped to C$1.3019 to the U.S. dollar, or 76.81 U.S. cents, its lowest level since September 2004.
"People were lined up one way, the markets went against them and they basically had to jump on it," said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
"And where we are now is probably more reasonable given what's going on with other assets that we've been lumped in with for the past couple of weeks."
The bounce in the Canadian dollar was also aided by a rally in global stock markets, higher prices for oil, a key Canadian export, and a slightly improved overall market sentiment.
But Watt suggested that the overnight low for the Canadian dollar below 77 U.S. cents could be a sign of things to come if signs of slowing global growth persist and if oil prices fall closer to the $60-a-barrel level.
With no Canadian economic data due until later in the week, the currency's direction until then will likely be dictated by overall market sentiment.
The Canadian industrial product price index and the raw materials price index for September are due out on Thursday, followed by Friday's gross domestic product report for August.
BOND PRICES DROP
Canadian bond prices were all stuck lower after a global equities rally lessened the appeal of secure government debt.
The Toronto Stock Exchange's main index shot 402 points, or 4.7 percent, higher at the open following a steep slide the previous session. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 140 points, or 1.7 percent, at the open.
The Canadian overnight Libor rate was 2.2750 percent, up from 2.2500 percent on Monday.
Monday's CORRA rate was 2.2512 percent, down from 2.2609 percent on Friday. The Bank of Canada publishes the previous day's rate at around 9 a.m. daily.
The two-year bond was down 7 Canadian cents at C$101.32 to yield 2.100 percent. The 10-year bond dropped 54 Canadian cents to C$104.58 to yield 3.678 percent.
The yield spread between the two-year and the 10-year bond moved to 160 basis points from 164 at the previous close.
The 30-year bond dipped 98 Canadian cents to C$113.67 to yield 4.176 percent. In the United States, the 30-year Treasury yielded 4.136 percent.
(Editing by Peter Galloway)
Frank Pingue, ReutersPublished: Tuesday, October 28, 2008
TORONTO (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar was higher versus the U.S. dollar on Tuesday in choppy trade that saw the currency move back from its lowest level in more than four years as a bout of short-covering kicked in.
Bond prices, with no Canadian data to consider, were down across the curve alongside the bigger U.S. Treasury market as a slew of bargain-hunting gave a jolt to global stock markets and left little interest in government debt.
At 9:40 a.m. EDT, the Canadian unit was at C$1.2864 to the U.S. dollar, or 77.74 U.S. cents, up from C$1.2889 to the U.S. dollar, or 77.58 U.S. cents, at Monday's close. That erased a steep overnight fall in the currency, which dropped to C$1.3019 to the U.S. dollar, or 76.81 U.S. cents, its lowest level since September 2004.
"People were lined up one way, the markets went against them and they basically had to jump on it," said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
"And where we are now is probably more reasonable given what's going on with other assets that we've been lumped in with for the past couple of weeks."
The bounce in the Canadian dollar was also aided by a rally in global stock markets, higher prices for oil, a key Canadian export, and a slightly improved overall market sentiment.
But Watt suggested that the overnight low for the Canadian dollar below 77 U.S. cents could be a sign of things to come if signs of slowing global growth persist and if oil prices fall closer to the $60-a-barrel level.
With no Canadian economic data due until later in the week, the currency's direction until then will likely be dictated by overall market sentiment.
The Canadian industrial product price index and the raw materials price index for September are due out on Thursday, followed by Friday's gross domestic product report for August.
BOND PRICES DROP
Canadian bond prices were all stuck lower after a global equities rally lessened the appeal of secure government debt.
The Toronto Stock Exchange's main index shot 402 points, or 4.7 percent, higher at the open following a steep slide the previous session. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 140 points, or 1.7 percent, at the open.
The Canadian overnight Libor rate was 2.2750 percent, up from 2.2500 percent on Monday.
Monday's CORRA rate was 2.2512 percent, down from 2.2609 percent on Friday. The Bank of Canada publishes the previous day's rate at around 9 a.m. daily.
The two-year bond was down 7 Canadian cents at C$101.32 to yield 2.100 percent. The 10-year bond dropped 54 Canadian cents to C$104.58 to yield 3.678 percent.
The yield spread between the two-year and the 10-year bond moved to 160 basis points from 164 at the previous close.
The 30-year bond dipped 98 Canadian cents to C$113.67 to yield 4.176 percent. In the United States, the 30-year Treasury yielded 4.136 percent.
(Editing by Peter Galloway)
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